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The Bills will be looking to reclaim first place in the AFC East when they travel to face the Patriots on "Thursday Night Football" (8:15 p.m. ET, Amazon Prime Video) in Week 13 of the 2022 NFL season.
The Bills (8-3) can pull a half-game ahead of the Dolphins (8-3), who play the 49ers on Sunday. The Patriots (6-5) have dropped to last place in the division and are out of the wild-card picture, with the Jets also looking up.
Buffalo's latest key injuries are left tackle Dion Dawkins and edge rusher Von Miller. New England will be without running back Damien Harris due to an injured offensive line and receiving corps.
Last season, the Patriots won a bizarre windy low-scoring game against the Bills, but Josh Allen came back strong to win the other two meetings.
Here's everything you need to know about betting on the Bills vs. Patriots in Week 13, including updated odds, trends, and our "Thursday Night Football" prediction.
PICKS FOR NFL WEEK 13: ATS | Straight-up predictions
Thursday Night Football odds: Bills vs. Patriots
Bills divided by 5.5
Moneyline: Buffalo -190, New England +155
The Bills' number has fluctuated depending on the book. Getting close to a touchdown helps when considering the Patriots as road night underdogs.
(Bet MGM betting odds)
All-time series between the Buffalo Bills and the New England Patriots
With a 77-47-1 record, the Patriots have a comfortable 30-game lead. However, the Bills have won four of the previous five meetings, including the playoffs. This ended the Patriots' seven-game winning streak under Belichick. Prior to 2020, the Patriots had also won 9 of 10 games.
Three trends to be aware of
—61 percent of spread bettors believe the Bills will win easily and by a touchdown, rather than by a close margin.
—53 percent of total bettors believe the number is a little low given what the Bills can do offensively and are betting on the over.
—This season, the Bills are 5-5 against the spread, with only three games going over. The Patriots are 6-4 against the spread, with only five games going over.
Three things to look out for
Allen vs. New England's pass defense
Allen has ripped the Patriots in the last two meetings, ignoring the wind-hampered anomaly. He had 314 passing yards, 64 rushing yards, and three touchdowns in his previous visit to Foxborough in December. In the Patriots' playoff rout in Buffalo, he had 308, 66, and 5, rating a near-perfect 157.6 as a passer. The Patriots will simply try to contain him, as a versatile and multiple threat can drive them insane.
Stevenson vs. Buffalo's run defense
The Bills have been more vulnerable to the run recently, but they don't give up much because they play with leads and put opponents in negative game scripts. The Patriots will rely on Stevenson and the power running game as much as possible to control the game and limit Allen's opportunities.
Mac Jones against Mac Jones
Which Jones will appear? The one who lit up the Vikings and was an efficient rookie Pro Bowler in 2021... or the one who struggled with turnovers earlier in the season, sparking speculation that rookie Bailey Zappe would start ahead of him? Expect something in the middle as the Patriots attempt to grind out this game despite receiving injuries.
37.1 percent vs. 50.8 percent That first figure represents the rate at which the Bills convert third downs, which is second only to the Chiefs. That second number represents what the Patriots do on third down, where they are ranked 25th in the NFL. The Patriots will try to grind it out with ball control and field goals, but Jones hasn't been able to sustain offense like Allen has this season.
Prediction for Bills vs. Patriots
The Bills are aware that the Patriots will put up a physical fight on the road, with the defense bending but not breaking for Bill Belichick. The Patriots will stay in the game early with timely defense and a heavy dose of Stevenson in the rushing attack. However, the Bills eventually benefit from the field-goal fest, as well as their more consistent TD pop.
Patriots 24, Bills 20
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